As is the case after American presidential elections, numerous books have been and will be written analyzing what happened and why.
Some of these books provide enlightening new information, some are predictable and regurgitate previously known information. Some assign blame to individuals for their role in a losing campaign, many are a way simply to make money for their authors, and some are attempts by a losing candidate to help position themselves for another campaign.
Positioning herself for another national or state campaign may be the case with Kamala Harris.
Harris may be following the approach of Winston Churchill after World War II when asked, “When the definitive history of the war is written, how will history treat him?†Churchill reportedly replied, “History will be kind to me, as I intend to write it.†He did exactly that with his epic six-volume 4,700-plus word set, “The Second World War.â€
Harris’ 320-page book — “107 Days†— is a much shorter read, but like Churchill’s books, it has her unique views and perspectives designed to help history be kind to her.
To date, sales of her book have been strong with 359,000 copies sold, putting it on track to be the best-selling book analyzing the 2024 presidential campaign.
In any event, I suggest those who choose to read Harris’ book or any of the post-2024 presidential election books, should also read James Carville’s recent New York Times op-ed.
Carville has a well-deserved reputation as a brilliant political strategist. He was a key adviser to former President Bill Clinton in his successful 1992 campaign to defeat George H.W. Bush who was presiding over a less than robust healthy national economy.
During that campaign, Carville coined the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid.â€
Fast forward to the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Prior to that election, Carville adjusted his thinking on the campaign message — “it’s the economy stupid.â€
This time, Carville thought that despite President Biden’s low job performance approval ratings, the national economy was, in Carville’s view, “quite good.†Carville thought, “sometimes it takes a while for people to feel it.†As a result of that thinking, he expected a Harris win.
In expecting that outcome, he ignored a timeless reality of politics: perception is reality.
That was confirmed when a majority of 2024 presidential voters either ignored or chose not to believe a steady flow of Democratic campaign messages with positive news on the economy.
These voters perceived the economic policies of the Biden administration were the root cause. That perception helped drive their voting decisions that a change was needed.
Harris reinforced that voting decision when she was asked on national TV whether she would have done anything differently than President Biden. She replied, “not a thing comes to mind,†then added that she plans to appoint a Republican to her Cabinet if she is elected.
Not messages that resonated with those voters wanting change.
Carville acknowledged in his recent column that not only were his predictions of a Harris win in 2024 wrong, but he also suggested she lost because of the economy.
Carville wrote, “I’ve been going over this in my head for the past two months, all the variables, all the what ifs, all the questions about Joe Biden’s reelection decisions and what kind of Democratic message might have worked against Donald Trump. I keep coming back to the same thing. We lost for one very simple reason: It was, it is, and it always will be the economy, stupid.â€
He noted Trump did well with middle class and low-income voters, by focusing on their economic worries, despite what Carville thought about the strength of the U.S. economy. Carville also suggests that “Democrats have flat-out lost the economic narrative. The only path to electoral salvation is to take it back.â€
He wrote, “Perception is everything in politics, and a lot of Americans perceive us [Democratic candidates and Democratic elected officials] as out to lunch on the economy — not feeling their pain, or else caring too much about other things instead.â€
He suggested many Democratic candidates spend too much time focusing on social issues and their negative opinions about Donald Trump.
Carville wrote bluntly, “It’s clear many Americans do not give a rat’s tail about Mr. Trump’s indictments — even if they are justified — or about his anti-democratic impulses or about social issues if they cannot provide for themselves or their families.â€
He also urged future Democratic presidential candidates to greater use of social media outlets comparable to Donald Trump joining podcasts with social media influencers like Joe Rogan who consistently has large numbers of young male followers.
Last, but not least, Carville has advice for future Democratic presidential candidates, no matter who they may be.
“The path forward could not be more certain,†he wrote. “We [Democratic presidential candidates] live or die by winning public perception of the economy.â€
Great advice for all future presidential candidates who when analyzing voter opinions on economic matters, need to acknowledge those opinions and voting decisions are based on their perceptions and not necessarily on what they may be expected to believe.

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